A study by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) shows that Brazil will continue presenting high rates of violence by 2023. The outlook is based on a list of "trends that are unlikely to be reversed" in eight years, as the high social inequality, easy access to firearms, the spread of crime in the countryside, the low confidence in the police, the governance issue in public safety, among other reasons. The consideration was made in the report entitled "Violence and Public Safety in 2023: exploratory scenarios and prospective planning," released on Monday.
The study also concludes that the intensification of criminal law, before the measures being proposed in Congress, should not diminish the crime rate. "Opting for a more repressive policy, punitivista and incarceration (...) and increased use of imprisonment may decrease our freedom and increase exclusion without reducing crime rates," it said. The report also points out that the police repression directed at the most vulnerable population creates "a widespread sense of injustice", which rules out the police in these communities. The Ipea also criticizes what it calls "mass incarceration", saying that this process "facilitates the recruitment of the young in the business of organized crime, as well as allow learning of criminal technologies, the result of which returns to the streets."
In the conclusions, the institute highlights the need for action "coordinate" the three powers, which should be organized by the Ministry of Justice. Thus advocates a "national information system" in which the United lead the integration of penal policies, with standardized training courses, while the municipalities assume the management of local actions against violence.
"We need to move forward in planning, with the elaboration of a national plan for public safety and the homicide prevention program, as is reinforced by strategic objectives. A plan would facilitate the actors to coordinate for achieving goals, help set priorities and avoid duplication of actions and with a monitoring system would allow the correction of directions and monitoring by society, "says the study.
The expectation was even built on top of what is called the "key uncertainties", ie questions about what can be done in the coming years. For example, if there will be more public policy resources to tackle organized crime and to increase the effective investigators, and there will be an improvement in inclusive social development and the results produced by educational measures. For each answer, it was outlined four possible scenarios with the following ratings - endemic violence, authoritarian repression, social prevention and qualified repression, the latter being the most suitable to quell crime rates.
The report was made with the participation of 122 people from the IPEA, the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency, the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Justice (MJ) and public security experts.
Font: TheSky