Headquarters of the Central Bank, in Brasilia (Ueslei Marcelino / Reuters)
The minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), released on Thursday by the Central Bank (BC) says that the pace of domestic activity in 2016 is lower than originally anticipated. The evaluation of collegiate members, this process is "especially" intensified by the uncertainties generated by events "non-economic" which is way the BC refers to the political crisis and the effects of the operation Lava jet, which investigates corruption in Petrobras.
It said the available indicators continue to adjust and that investment has been withdrawn, mainly influenced by the occurrence of these non-economic events. "Private consumption also contracted, in line with the credit data, employment and income," said the minutes. The document estimated that the pace of activity is set to increase only as the confidence of businesses and families to strengthen after a necessary period of adjustment that was more intense and longer than anticipated.
"In the medium term, major changes must occur in the composition of demand and aggregate supply. Consumption tends to grow at a moderate pace and investments tend to gain momentum," said the minutes.
A reassessment of the external scenario, the Copom members withdrew the assessment that the biggest global growth scenario was more favorable to the growth of the Brazilian economy. Also it was taken the view that progress in the qualification of the workforce and the grant program would help in productivity gains.
The minutes repeated, however, the assessment of the need for a primary surplus trend to strengthen the perception of sustainability of the balance of the public sector.