Fall in household consumption has been responsible for the GDP in the negative (Ricardo Matsukawa / VEJA.com)
After the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) report that the gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.9% in the second quarter of this year, market analysts again predict a deterioration in economic activity in the country both in 2015 as in 2016 .
According to the Focus bulletin, released on Monday, analysts expect a drop in GDP of 2.26% - a week ago, this was estimated at 2.06%. This is the seventh time in a row that the indicator is pushed down. If confirmed, it will be the worst result of the Brazilian economy since 1990, when retreated 4.35%.
For 2016, the projection was 0.40% shrinkage from 0.24% on Monday - a month ago, the market is still betting on growth of 0.2% next year. This was the fourth consecutive negative adjustment to the field.
Despite the deterioration in GDP, the market further decreased the inflation projection for this year from 9.29% to 9.28%, as had also occurred last week. Even so, the National Index of Consumer Price (IPCA) still holds a very high level, far from the central target set by the government, of 6.5%, and, if implemented by the end of the year, the highest since 2003 to 2016, however, the market inflation expect larger than the projected at the last second, from 5.50% to 5.51%.
Regarding the basic interest rate (Selic), one of the main tools used by the government to curb inflation, the forecast is that it hold at 14.25% by the end of the year, in line with the last adjustment made by the Bank Central. For 2016, the market bet on a reduction of the Selic to the home of 12%.
